This is an online portal with information on donations that were announced publicly (or have been shared with permission) that were of interest to Vipul Naik. The git repository with the code for this portal, as well as all the underlying data, is available on GitHub. All payment amounts are in current United States dollars (USD). The repository of donations is being seeded with an initial collation by Issa Rice as well as continued contributions from him (see his commits and the contract work page listing all financially compensated contributions to the site) but all responsibility for errors and inaccuracies belongs to Vipul Naik. Current data is preliminary and has not been completely vetted and normalized; if sharing a link to this site or any page on this site, please include the caveat that the data is preliminary (if you want to share without including caveats, please check with Vipul Naik). We expect to have completed the first round of development by the end of March 2022. See the about page for more details. Also of interest: pageview data on analytics.vipulnaik.com, tutorial in README, request for feedback to EA Forum.
We do not have any donee information for the donee Foretold in our system.
|Cause area||Count||Median||Mean||Minimum||10th percentile||20th percentile||30th percentile||40th percentile||50th percentile||60th percentile||70th percentile||80th percentile||90th percentile||Maximum|
|Effective Altruism Funds: Long-Term Future Fund (filter this donee)||90,000.00||70,000.00||20,000.00|
|Donor||Amount (current USD)||Amount rank (out of 2)||Donation date||Cause area||URL||Influencer||Notes|
|Effective Altruism Funds: Long-Term Future Fund||70,000.00||1||Forecasting||https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future/payouts/6vDsjtUyDdvBa3sNeoNVvl||Oliver Habryka Alex Zhu Matt Wage Helen Toner Matt Fallshaw||Donation process: Donee submitted grant application through the application form for the April 2019 round of grants from the Long-Term Future Fund, and was selected as a grant recipient (23 out of almost 100 applications were accepted)
Intended use of funds (category): Direct project expenses
Intended use of funds: Grant will be mainly used by Ozzie Gooen to pay programmers to work on Foretold at http://www.foretold.io/ a forecasting application that handles full probability distributions. This includes work on Ken.js, a private version of Wikidata that Gooen has started integrating with Foretold
Donor reason for selecting the donee: Grant investigator and main influencer Oliver Habryka gives these reasons for the grant, as well as other forecasting-related grants made to Anthony Aguirre (Metaculus) and Jacob Lagerros: (1) confusion about what is progress and what problems need solving, (2) need for many people to collaborate and document, (3) low-hanging fruit in designing better online platforms for making intellectual progress -- Habryka works on LessWrong 2.0 for that reason, and Gooen has past experience in the space with his building of Guesstimate, (4) promise and tractability for forecasting platforms in particular (for instance, work by Philip Tetlock and work by Robin Hanson), (5) Even though some platforms, such as Predictionbook and Guesstimate, did not get the traction they expected, others like the Good Judgment Project have been successful, so one should not overgeneralize from a few failures. In addition, Habryka has a positive impression of Gooen in both in-person interaction and online writing
Donor reason for donating that amount (rather than a bigger or smaller amount): Likely to be the amount requested by the donee in the application (this is not stated explicitly by either the donor or the donee)
Percentage of total donor spend in the corresponding batch of donations: 7.58%
Donor reason for donating at this time (rather than earlier or later): Timing determined partly by timing of grant round. Gooen was a recipient of a previous $20,000 grant from the same fund (the EA Long-Term Future Fund) and found the money very helpful. He applied for more money in this round to scale the project up further
Other notes: The grant reasoning is written up by Oliver Habryka and is available at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions (GW, IR) The comments discuss this and the other forecasting grants, and include the question "why are you acting as grant-givers here rather than as special interest investors?" It is also included in a list of potentially concerning grants in a portfolio evaluation comment https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions#d4YHzSJnNWmyxf6HM (GW, IR) by Evan Gaensbauer.
|Effective Altruism Funds: Long-Term Future Fund||20,000.00||2||Forecasting||https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future/payouts/3JnNTzhJQsu4yQAYcKceSi||Alex Zhu Helen Toner Matt Fallshaw Matt Wage Oliver Habryka||Donation process: Donee submitted grant application through the application form for the November 2018 round of grants from the Long-Term Future Fund, and was selected as a grant recipient
Intended use of funds (category): Organizational general support
Intended use of funds: Ozzie Gooen plans to build an online community of EA forecasters, researchers, and data scientists to predict variables of interest to the EA community. Ozzie proposed using the platform to answer a range of questions, including examples like “How many Google searches will there be for reinforcement learning in 2020?” or “How many plan changes will 80,000 hours cause in 2020?”, and using the results to help EA organizations and individuals to prioritize. The grant funds the project's basic setup and initial testing. The community and tool would later get created with the name Foretold; it is available at https://www.foretold.io/
Donor reason for selecting the donee: The grant decision was made based on past success by Ozzie Gooen with Guesstimate https://www.getguesstimate.com/ as well as belief both in the broad value of the project and the specifics of the project plan.
Donor reason for donating that amount (rather than a bigger or smaller amount): Amount likely determined by the specifics of the project plan and the scope of this round of funding, namely, the project's basic setup and initial testing.
Percentage of total donor spend in the corresponding batch of donations: 20.94%
Donor reason for donating at this time (rather than earlier or later): Timing determined by timing of grant round, and also by the donee's desire to start the project
Donor retrospective of the donation: The Long-Term Future Fund would make a followup grant of $70,000 to Foretold in the April 2019 grant round https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future/payouts/6vDsjtUyDdvBa3sNeoNVvl see also https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions (GW, IR) for more detail