Foretold donations received

This is an online portal with information on donations that were announced publicly (or have been shared with permission) that were of interest to Vipul Naik. The git repository with the code for this portal, as well as all the underlying data, is available on GitHub. All payment amounts are in current United States dollars (USD). The repository of donations is being seeded with an initial collation by Issa Rice as well as continued contributions from him (see his commits and the contract work page listing all financially compensated contributions to the site) but all responsibility for errors and inaccuracies belongs to Vipul Naik. Current data is preliminary and has not been completely vetted and normalized; if sharing a link to this site or any page on this site, please include the caveat that the data is preliminary (if you want to share without including caveats, please check with Vipul Naik). We expect to have completed the first round of development by the end of December 2019. See the about page for more details. Also of interest: pageview data on analytics.vipulnaik.com, tutorial in README, request for feedback to EA Forum.

Table of contents

Basic donee information

We do not have any donee information for the donee Foretold in our system.

Donee donation statistics

Cause areaCountMedianMeanMinimum10th percentile 20th percentile 30th percentile 40th percentile 50th percentile 60th percentile 70th percentile 80th percentile 90th percentile Maximum
Overall 2 20,000 45,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000
Forecasting 2 20,000 45,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000

Donation amounts by donor and year for donee Foretold

Donor Total 2019 2018
Effective Altruism Funds (filter this donee) 90,000.00 70,000.00 20,000.00
Total 90,000.00 70,000.00 20,000.00

Full list of donations in reverse chronological order (2 donations)

DonorAmount (current USD)Amount rank (out of 2)Donation dateCause areaURLInfluencerNotes
Effective Altruism Funds70,000.0012019-04-07Forecastinghttps://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future/payouts/6vDsjtUyDdvBa3sNeoNVvlOliver Habryka Alex Zhu Matt Wage Helen Toner Matt Fallshaw Grant to Ozzie Gooen mainly for Foretold, a forecasting application available at https://www.foretold.io/ (currently needs one to contact Gooen for early access). Foretold that handles full probability distributions. The grant reasoning is written up by Oliver Habryka and is available at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions His reasons for the grant include: (1) confusion about what counts as progress and what specific problems need solving, (2) need for many people to collaborate on solving problems and to document the progress they have made so far, (3) low-hanging fruit in designing better online platforms for making intellectual progress (which is why I chose to work on LessWrong + AI Alignment Forum + EA Forum) -- Habryka works on LessWrong 2.0 for that reason, and Gooen has past experience in the space with his building of Guesstimate, (4) promise and tractability for forecasting platforms in particular (for instance, work by Philip Tetlock and work by Robin Hanson), (5) Even though some platforms, such as Predictionbook and Guesstimate, did not get the traction they expected, others like the Good Judgment Project have been successful, so one should not overgeneralize from a few failures, (6) Habryka has a positive impression of Gooen both in in-person interaction and in online writing. The reasoning for the grant is similar to the reasoning for the grants to Anthony Aguirre (Metaculus) and Jacob Lagerros made in the same round. The comments discuss this and the other forecasting grants, and include the question "why are you acting as grant-givers here rather than as special interest investors?" It is also included in a list of potentially concerning grants in a portfolio evaluation comment https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions#d4YHzSJnNWmyxf6HM by Evan Gaensbauer. Percentage of total donor spend in the corresponding batch of donations: 100.00%.
Effective Altruism Funds20,000.0022018-11-29Forecastinghttps://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future/payouts/3JnNTzhJQsu4yQAYcKceSiAlex Zhu Helen Toner Matt Fallshaw Matt Wage Oliver Habryka Ozzie Gooen sought funding to build an online community of EA forecasters, researchers, and data scientists to predict variables of interest to the EA community. Ozzie proposed using the platform to answer a range of questions, including examples like “How many Google searches will there be for reinforcement learning in 2020?” or “How many plan changes will 80,000 hours cause in 2020?”, and using the results to help EA organizations and individuals to prioritize. The grant decision was made based on past success by Ozzie Gooen with Guesstimate https://www.getguesstimate.com/ as well as belief both in the broad value of the project and the specifics of the project plan. The project would later be named Foretold, and receive a followup grant of $70,000 in the April 2019 round of grants https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future/payouts/6vDsjtUyDdvBa3sNeoNVvl from the Long Term Future Fund; see also https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions for more detail. Percentage of total donor spend in the corresponding batch of donations: 100.00%.