Good Judgment Inc. donations received

This is an online portal with information on donations that were announced publicly (or have been shared with permission) that were of interest to Vipul Naik. The git repository with the code for this portal, as well as all the underlying data, is available on GitHub. All payment amounts are in current United States dollars (USD). The repository of donations is being seeded with an initial collation by Issa Rice as well as continued contributions from him (see his commits and the contract work page listing all financially compensated contributions to the site) but all responsibility for errors and inaccuracies belongs to Vipul Naik. Current data is preliminary and has not been completely vetted and normalized; if sharing a link to this site or any page on this site, please include the caveat that the data is preliminary (if you want to share without including caveats, please check with Vipul Naik). We expect to have completed the first round of development by the end of March 2023. See the about page for more details. Also of interest: pageview data on analytics.vipulnaik.com, tutorial in README, request for feedback to EA Forum.

Table of contents

Basic donee information

We do not have any donee information for the donee Good Judgment Inc. in our system.

Donee donation statistics

Cause areaCountMedianMeanMinimum10th percentile 20th percentile 30th percentile 40th percentile 50th percentile 60th percentile 70th percentile 80th percentile 90th percentile Maximum
Overall 1 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000
Biosecurity and pandemic preparedness 1 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000

Donation amounts by donor and year for donee Good Judgment Inc.

Donor Total 2020
Open Philanthropy (filter this donee) 40,000.00 40,000.00
Total 40,000.00 40,000.00

Full list of donations in reverse chronological order (1 donations)

Graph of top 10 donors by amount, showing the timeframe of donations

Graph of donations and their timeframes
DonorAmount (current USD)Amount rank (out of 1)Donation dateCause areaURLInfluencerNotes
Open Philanthropy40,000.0012020-03Biosecurity and pandemic preparedness/COVID-19https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/good-judgment-inc-covid-19-forecastingLuke Muehlhauser Intended use of funds (category): Direct project expenses

Intended use of funds: Grant to expand "efforts to aggregate, publish, and track forecasts about the COVID-19 outbreak with the hope that the forecasts can help improve planning by health security professionals and the broader public, limit the spread of the virus, and save lives. The forecasts are aggregated each day from the most accurate 1-2% of forecasters from a large-scale, government-funded series of forecasting tournaments, plus an annual uptake of a handful of top performers from the nearly 40,000 forecasters on Good Judgement Open." The predictions are at https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/ and the reasoning is explained more in https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic

Donor reason for selecting the donee: The grant is made at around the time the COVID-19 pandemic is being acknowledged worldwide, and just as Open Phil is ramping up grantmaking in the area. The grant investigator, Luke Muehlhauser, has generally been interested in forecasting. Most other COVID-19 grants are investigated by Jacob Trefethen.

Donor reason for donating that amount (rather than a bigger or smaller amount): Amount likely determined by project cost

Donor reason for donating at this time (rather than earlier or later): Timing determmined by the breaking out of the COVID-19 pandemic
Intended funding timeframe in months: 1

Donor thoughts on making further donations to the donee: The blog post https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic says: "We may commission additional forecasts related to COVID-19 in the coming months, and we welcome suggestions of well-formed questions for which regularly updated forecasts would be especially helpful to public health professionals and the broader public."

Other notes: Announced: 2020-03-17.