Effective Altruism Funds: Long-Term Future Fund donations made to Metaculus

This is an online portal with information on donations that were announced publicly (or have been shared with permission) that were of interest to Vipul Naik. The git repository with the code for this portal, as well as all the underlying data, is available on GitHub. All payment amounts are in current United States dollars (USD). The repository of donations is being seeded with an initial collation by Issa Rice as well as continued contributions from him (see his commits and the contract work page listing all financially compensated contributions to the site) but all responsibility for errors and inaccuracies belongs to Vipul Naik. Current data is preliminary and has not been completely vetted and normalized; if sharing a link to this site or any page on this site, please include the caveat that the data is preliminary (if you want to share without including caveats, please check with Vipul Naik). We expect to have completed the first round of development by the end of March 2022. See the about page for more details. Also of interest: pageview data on analytics.vipulnaik.com, tutorial in README, request for feedback to EA Forum.

Table of contents

Basic donor information

We do not have any donor information for the donor Effective Altruism Funds: Long-Term Future Fund in our system.

This entity is also a donee.

Full donor page for donor Effective Altruism Funds: Long-Term Future Fund

Basic donee information

We do not have any donee information for the donee Metaculus in our system.

Full donee page for donee Metaculus

Donor–donee relationship

Item Value

Donor–donee donation statistics

Cause areaCountMedianMeanMinimum10th percentile 20th percentile 30th percentile 40th percentile 50th percentile 60th percentile 70th percentile 80th percentile 90th percentile Maximum
Overall 1 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000
Forecasting 1 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000

Donation amounts by cause area and year

If you hover over a cell for a given cause area and year, you will get a tooltip with the number of donees and the number of donations.

Note: Cause area classification used here may not match that used by donor for all cases.

Cause area Number of donations Total 2019
Forecasting (filter this donor) 1 70,000.00 70,000.00
Total 1 70,000.00 70,000.00

Skipping spending graph as there is fewer than one year’s worth of donations.

Full list of donations in reverse chronological order (1 donations)

Amount (current USD)Amount rank (out of 1)Donation dateCause areaURLInfluencerNotes
70,000.0012019-04-07Forecastinghttps://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future/payouts/6vDsjtUyDdvBa3sNeoNVvlOliver Habryka Alex Zhu Matt Wage Helen Toner Matt Fallshaw Donation process: Donee submitted grant application through the application form for the April 2019 round of grants from the Long-Term Future Fund, and was selected as a grant recipient (23 out of almost 100 applications were accepted)

Intended use of funds (category): Direct project expenses

Intended use of funds: Grant to Anothony Aguirre to expand the Metaculus prediction platform along with its community. Metaculus.com is a fully-functional prediction platform with ~10,000 registered users and >120,000 predictions made to date on more than >1000 questions. The two major high-priority expansions are: (1) An integrated set of extensions to improve user interaction and information-sharing. This would include private messaging and notifications, private groups, a prediction “following” system to create micro-teams within individual questions, and various incentives and systems for information-sharing. (2) Link questions into a network. Users would express links between questions, from very simple (“notify me regarding question Y when P(X) changes substantially) to more complex (“Y happens only if X happens, but not conversely”, etc.) Information can also be gleaned from what users actually do.

Donor reason for selecting the donee: The grant investigator and main influencer, Oliver Habryka, refers to reasoning included in the grant to Ozzie Gooen for Foretold, that is made in the same batch of grants and described at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions (GW, IR) He also lists these reasons for liking Metaculus: (1) Valuable service in the past few years, (2) Cooperation with the X-risk space to get answers to important questions

Donor reason for donating that amount (rather than a bigger or smaller amount): The grantee requested $150,000, but Oliver Habryka, the grant investigator, was not confident enough in the grant to recommend the full amount. Some concerns mentioned: (1) Lack of a dedicated full-time resource, (2) Overlap with the Good Judgment Project, that reduces its access to resources and people
Percentage of total donor spend in the corresponding batch of donations: 7.58%

Donor reason for donating at this time (rather than earlier or later): Timing determined by timing of grant round

Other notes: The grant reasoning is written up by Oliver Habryka and is available at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions (GW, IR) The comments discuss this and the other forecasting grants, and include the question "why are you acting as grant-givers here rather than as special interest investors?" It is also included in a list of potentially concerning grants in a portfolio evaluation comment https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions#d4YHzSJnNWmyxf6HM (GW, IR) by Evan Gaensbauer.