Effective Altruism Funds donations made to Metaculus

This is an online portal with information on donations that were announced publicly (or have been shared with permission) that were of interest to Vipul Naik. The git repository with the code for this portal, as well as all the underlying data, is available on GitHub. All payment amounts are in current United States dollars (USD). The repository of donations is being seeded with an initial collation by Issa Rice as well as continued contributions from him (see his commits and the contract work page listing all financially compensated contributions to the site) but all responsibility for errors and inaccuracies belongs to Vipul Naik. Current data is preliminary and has not been completely vetted and normalized; if sharing a link to this site or any page on this site, please include the caveat that the data is preliminary (if you want to share without including caveats, please check with Vipul Naik). We expect to have completed the first round of development by the end of December 2019. See the about page for more details. Also of interest: pageview data on analytics.vipulnaik.com, tutorial in README, request for feedback to EA Forum.

Table of contents

Basic donor information

ItemValue
Country United Kingdom
Affiliated organizations (current or former; restricted to potential donees or others relevant to donation decisions)Centre for Effective Altruism
Websitehttps://app.effectivealtruism.org/
Donations URLhttps://app.effectivealtruism.org/
Regularity with which donor updates donations datairregular
Regularity with which Donations List Website updates donations data (after donor update)irregular
Lag with which donor updates donations datamonths
Lag with which Donations List Website updates donations data (after donor update)days
Data entry method on Donations List WebsiteManual (no scripts used)

Brief history: The funds are a program of the Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA). The creation of the funds was inspired by the success of the EA Giving Group donor-advised fund run by Nick Beckstead, and also by the donor lottery run in December 2016 by Paul Christiano and Carl Shulman (see http://effective-altruism.com/ea/14d/donor_lotteries_demonstration_and_faq/ for more). EA Funds were introduced on 2017-02-09 in the post http://effective-altruism.com/ea/174/introducing_the_ea_funds/ and launched on 2017-02-28 in the post http://effective-altruism.com/ea/17v/ea_funds_beta_launch/ The first round of allocations was announced on 2017-04-20 at http://effective-altruism.com/ea/19d/update_on_effective_altruism_funds/ The funds allocation information appears to have next been updated in November 2017; see https://www.facebook.com/groups/effective.altruists/permalink/1606722932717391/ for more

Brief notes on broad donor philosophy and major focus areas: There are four EA Funds, each with its own focus area and own fund managers: Global Health and Development (Elie Hassenfeld of GiveWell), Animal Welfare (Lewis Bollard of the Open Philanthropy Project as Chair, Toni Adleberg of Animal Charity Evaluators, Natalie Cargill of Effective Giving, and Jamie Spurgeon of Animal Charity Evaluators), Long Term Future (Matt Fallshaw as Chair, Oliver Habryka, Helen Toner, Matt Wage, and Alex Zhu; Nick Beckstead and Jonas Vollmer serve as advisors), and EA Community (also known as EA Meta) (Luke Ding as Chair, Alex Foster, Tara Mac Aulay, Denise Melchin, and Matt Wage; Nick Beckstead serves as advisor)

Notes on grant decision logistics: Grants are decided separately within each of the four funds, by the managers of that fund. Allocation of the money may take about a month after the grant decision. Fund managers generally allocate multiple grants together with a bunch of money collected over the last few months. For all funds except the Global Health and Development Fund, the target months for making grant decisions are November, February, and June. For the Global Health and Development Fund, the target months are December, March and July. Actual grant decision months may be one or two months later than the target months

Notes on grant publication logistics: Grant details are published on the EA Funds website, and linked to from the page on the specific Fund. Grants allocated together are generally published together on a single page. Grants from the Global Health and Development Fund (managed by Elie Hassenfeld of GiveWell) are usually of two types: (1) Grants that are also GiveWell Incubation Grants, so they will be cross-posted to the GiveWell Incubation Grants page on GiveWell's site (but are listed only with donor Effective Altruism Funds on the donations list website), (2) Grants that are decided along with and similarly to GiveWell discretionary regranting

Notes on grant financing: Finances for each of the funds are maintained separately: individual donors can donate to a specific fund, or to all funds in a specific proportion specified by them. Only money explicitly donated to a fund can be granted out from that fund. Other money of the Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA) is not granted out through the Funds

This entity is also a donee.

Full donor page for donor Effective Altruism Funds

Basic donee information

We do not have any donee information for the donee Metaculus in our system.

Full donee page for donee Metaculus

Donor–donee relationship

Item Value

Donor–donee donation statistics

Cause areaCountMedianMeanMinimum10th percentile 20th percentile 30th percentile 40th percentile 50th percentile 60th percentile 70th percentile 80th percentile 90th percentile Maximum
Overall 1 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000
Forecasting 1 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000

Donation amounts by cause area and year

If you hover over a cell for a given cause area and year, you will get a tooltip with the number of donees and the number of donations.

Note: Cause area classification used here may not match that used by donor for all cases.

Cause area Number of donations Total 2019
Forecasting (filter this donor) 1 70,000.00 70,000.00
Total 1 70,000.00 70,000.00

Skipping spending graph as there is fewer than one year’s worth of donations.

Full list of donations in reverse chronological order (1 donations)

Amount (current USD)Amount rank (out of 1)Donation dateCause areaURLInfluencerNotes
70,000.0012019-04-07Forecastinghttps://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future/payouts/6vDsjtUyDdvBa3sNeoNVvlOliver Habryka Alex Zhu Matt Wage Helen Toner Matt Fallshaw Donation process: Donee submitted grant application through the application form for the April 2019 round of grants from the Long Term Future Fund, and was selected as a grant recipient (23 out of almost 100 applications were accepted)

Intended use of funds (category): Direct project expenses

Intended use of funds: Grant to Anothony Aguirre to expand the Metaculus prediction platform along with its community. Metaculus.com is a fully-functional prediction platform with ~10,000 registered users and >120,000 predictions made to date on more than >1000 questions. The two major high-priority expansions are: (1) An integrated set of extensions to improve user interaction and information-sharing. This would include private messaging and notifications, private groups, a prediction “following” system to create micro-teams within individual questions, and various incentives and systems for information-sharing. (2) Link questions into a network. Users would express links between questions, from very simple (“notify me regarding question Y when P(X) changes substantially) to more complex (“Y happens only if X happens, but not conversely”, etc.) Information can also be gleaned from what users actually do.

Donor reason for selecting the donee: The grant investigator and main influencer, Oliver Habryka, refers to reasoning included in the grant to Ozzie Gooen for Foretold, that is made in the same batch of grants and described at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions He also lists these reasons for liking Metaculus: (1) Valuable service in the past few years, (2) Cooperation with the X-risk space to get answers to important questions

Donor reason for donating that amount (rather than a bigger or smaller amount): The grantee requested $150,000, but Oliver Habryka, the grant investigator, was not confident enough in the grant to recommend the full amount. Some concerns mentioned: (1) Lack of a dedicated full-time resource, (2) Overlap with the Good Judgment Project, that reduces its access to resources and people
Percentage of total donor spend in the corresponding batch of donations: 7.58%

Donor reason for donating at this time (rather than earlier or later): Timing determined by timing of grant round

Other notes: The grant reasoning is written up by Oliver Habryka and is available at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions The comments discuss this and the other forecasting grants, and include the question "why are you acting as grant-givers here rather than as special interest investors?" It is also included in a list of potentially concerning grants in a portfolio evaluation comment https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CJJDwgyqT4gXktq6g/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions#d4YHzSJnNWmyxf6HM by Evan Gaensbauer.